Not So Dumb

I continue to respect my fellow voters more than the people who try to "work" us. For all the efforts of geeks, wonks, pundits, insiders, players and cynics to interpret election results as being about images, strategies, symbols, gaffes and gotchas, when times are tough most of us go on making pretty sensible, reality-based decisions. I often catch myself doubting this, especially when the aforementioned pundits try to convince me that trivialities like "Bittergate" could tip the election, but then I'll be reminded of something like Alan J. Lichtman's "13 Keys to the White House." I think I've mentioned this before: Lichtman's model matches up correctly with the popular vote in every presidential election since the Civil War. (The one catch in the model is that it can't predict Electoral College weirdness, so it predicted Gore in 2000. It did, however, forecast a very tight race.) And right now it's pointing toward a solid Obama victory. Lichtman, in other words, is one of my great sources of understanding and reassurance these days. So I was very interested to read this quote from him today:

The Democratic strategists who have expressed skepticism about academic models, including my Keys to the White House, that predict an Obama victory are themselves responsible for the shallow, empty campaigns run by Democrats in recent elections. Nothing changes from one election to the next, because the media, the candidates, the pollsters, and the consultants are co-dependent in the idea that elections are exercises in manipulating voters, and in giving us negative campaigns, bland and scripted lines, and meaningless debates. The Keys have correctly predicted the popular vote results of the past six elections because they reflect the basic truth that presidential elections turn on how well an administration has governed the country, not on how well candidates have performed in the campaign. If Obama could come to realize how elections really work and why he is ahead, he would fire the hucksters and handlers, speak from the heart to the American people, and articulate forthrightly and concretely what we should be accomplishing during the next four years. He could use the campaign to establish a mandate for governing and to build grassroots support for his ideas.

I think Obama's shown moments when he does realize exactly this. His campaign has been refreshing for its relative lack of Republican and Clintonesque stunts. If any candidate in recent memory has both the opportunity and the temperament to change the way the process is run and end the reign of the smarmy insiders, he's the one. The next couple of months will reveal a lot.