Programmed for Drama

It's nearly impossible not to fixate on the Republican primaries in fascination and horror—but don't we all really know it's entirely about nothing? When you look at the big picture, Mitt Romney's nomination still looks as inevitable as it ever did, despite the news articles after every bump in the road proclaiming that it's now a whole new race.

      Most of us have figured Mitt in 2012 was inevitable since he lost the Florida primary in '08, if only because of the culture of GOP voting: those voters are conservative in more than just their policies, nearly always nominating the lead bridesmaid from the last election. McCain was Bush's runner up in 2000, Dole was the elder Bush's in '88, Bush was Reagan's in '80, Reagan was Ford's in '76. The younger Bush hadn't run before, but he was his own sort of heir apparent, as was Nixon in '68. Democrats love outsiders, fresh faces, and upsets (Obama, Clinton, Carter, McGovern, Kennedy), but Republicans haven't gambled on one since the Goldwater disaster of '64. And elephants never forget.

      Still, we seize on each new twitch of the seismograph—Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Santorum, Gingrich—thinking that this is the one that proves the ground is really shifting. Similarly, we want to believe that the prolonged GOP battle will help Obama or that Mitt's credibility will be subtly but fatally damaged all the way to November. But we know just as well that if the economy is looking okay in October Obama will win, but if it's tanking Romney will. We can remind ourselves of that any time with a look at Allan Lichtman's Keys to the White House, but that's not half as much fun as this week's Gallup poll showing something that we know it won't be showing next week.

      It's instinctive, I think. We evolved to be alert to danger and opportunity, and so our bodies crave that feeling of spotting something the instant it appears and being first to jump. It's the same instinct that keeps us twisting in suspense through a summer action movie with an ending we predicted when we saw the trailer. As much as we may wish in our prefrontal cortices to be sensible realists who take the long view, the love of drama and surprise is in our cells. Like low-hanging fruit or a crouching leopard, the merest glimpse of a Newt Gingrich nomination holds us rapt.